Five & Dime 2009: Decay Rates

This is my third time to do the Decay Rates analysis... it yields some intriguing information. I'm not sure my work here is statistically sound but it's interesting. (That's your cue to smile & grin knowingly.)

Anyway, what I did was to take the top 350 (352 due to a tie for the last spot) games (percentage of plays-wise) from the last eleven years - the cut-off number ended up being an average of 2.04% or better over time. For comparison, last year (2008) the average was 2.08% and two years ago (2007) the average was 2.00%. I think that this number has remained consistent over the past three years means something - not sure what, though.

For this particular exercise in determining decay rates of games, I then set aside games with 4 or less years on the list... leaving me with 250 games. (Again, for comparison, there were 239 games in 2008 and 230 games in 2007.) To do the decay calculation, I:

1. Took the largest percentage played number from each game.
2. Compared it to the current (2009) percentage played number for each game.
3. Divided that amount by the number of years since it had first appeared on the Five & Dime Lists.

Three games showed no rate of decay whatsoever - they have appeared on the list for 5+ years and their highest percentage played is in 2009:

• Arkham Horror
• Descent: Journeys in the Dark
• Glory to Rome

There were two games in 2008 (Tichu & Chicken Cha Cha Cha) and three games in 2007 (Downfall of Pompeii, Hive & Uno). Here's the chart with the rest of the top 20 games... that is, the games that showed the least decay over 5+ years time. (There's actually 21 games on this chart, as the final 2 games were very close in percentage.)

Game	years on list	percentage decay	2008?	2007?
Arkham Horror	5	0.00%	no	no
Descent: Journeys in the Dark	5	0.00%	no	no
Glory To Rome	5	0.00%	no	no
Hive	8	-0.01%	11th	1st
Empire Builder series	10	-0.09%	no	no
Connect 4	11	-0.13%	4th	4th
Rummikub	10	-0.14%	14th	13th
Jungle Speed/Arriba	10	-0.17%	no	no
Uno	8	-0.24%	5th	1st
Set	10	-0.29%	8th	12th
Magic: The Gathering	12	-0.33%	27th	20th
Midnight Party	9	-0.34%	7th	9th
Cloud 9	10	-0.34%	9th	4th
Saboteur	5	-0.38%	no	no
Gang of Four	9	-0.38%	15th	7th
Nexus Ops	5	-0.38%	no	no
Quoridor	11	-0.38%	40th	18th
Downfall of Pompeii	8	-0.39%	26th	1st
Quarto	8	-0.47%	20th	37th
Wizard	12	-0.48%	10th	7th
Time's Up/Celebrities	12	-0.50%	3rd	20th

And here's a chart with the 20 games who've shown the highest rates of decay. (Note - to show a high rate of decay, you have to start from a high position.)

Game	years on list	percentage decay	2008?	2007?
Ticket to Ride	6	-8.72%	1st	no
San Juan	6	-8.27%	4th	no
St Petersburg	6	-8.26%	2nd	no
Puerto Rico	8	-8.16%	3rd	1st
Attika	7	-6.29%	5th	2nd
Bohnanza	12	-5.54%	7th	5th
Carcassonne	10	-5.46%	6th	6th
Euphrat & Tigris	12	-5.38%	9th	3rd
Lost Cities	11	-5.35%	11th	9th
Shadows Over Camelot	5	-5.14%	no	no
Mamma Mia!/Sole Mio	11	-4.83%	10th	7th
Balloon Cup	7	-4.68%	13th	4th
Goa	6	-4.65%	8th	no
Settlers of Catan	12	-4.55%	17th	11th
Through the Desert	12	-4.54%	14th	14th
Transamerica/europa	8	-4.53%	19th	13th
Ticket to Ride: Europe	5	-4.43%	no	no
Caylus	5	-4.18%	no	no
Battle Cry (AH)	10	-4.05%	17th	10th
Wyatt Earpt	9	-4.04%	18th	12th

I'm not sure I'm really qualified to comment beyond the statistics... you need to know that the average decay rate of these games was 16.65% over their lifespan (1.85% per year) and that the average lifespan was just over 9.1 years. Make of that what you will. (BTW, last year, the average decay rater was 16.51% over their lifespan/1.98% per year. Intriguing to me that the numbers remain so solid.)

Another interesting factoid - this list of highest decay rates is remarkably stable. There are only three new games on the list (Shadows Over Camelot, Ticket to Ride: Europe & Caylus)... which means only 3 games left the list (Coloretto, King's Breakfast & Hey! That's My Fish). All three of the new games just became eligible for the list (this is their fifth year on the Five & Dimes.)