The Collective Mind is, well, OK

Yesterday I posted about the collective mind of the "Birdbath" predicting the results for the Oscars... so, here's the results.

There are 24 categories... and we got 15 of them right! (For the record, Chris Newcomb won my annual Oscar Pool/"Birdbath" with 18 correct.) The ones we missed were:

• Actress: we picked Ellen Page (rather than Marion Cotillard - in fact, only the winner, Chris, managed to get this one right)
• Supporting Actress: we picked Cate Blanchett (rather than Tilda Swinton - who I can't get the picture of her as the White Witch of Narnia out of my head, no matter how many Oscars she wins)
• Cinematography: we picked No Country for Old Men (rather than There Will Be Blood - and don't you think that a multi-million dollar actress would work on pronouncing the word correctly before she got out there?)
• Makeup: we picked Pirates of the Carribean 3 (rather than La Vie en Rose)
• Sound Editing & Sound Mixing: we picked Transformers (rather than The Bourne Ultimatum)
• Visual Effects: we picked Transformers (rather than The Golden Compass)
• Documentary Feature: we picked Sicko (rather than Taxi to the Dark Side - ah, exposing torture is more important to the folks in Hollywood than fixing our health care system OR giving Michael Moore more camera time to pontificate with)
• Documentary Short: we picked Sari's Mother (rather than Freeheld)

Not as good as last year... but still decent

And speaking of not-bad performances, I was pleasantly surprised by how watchable the Oscar broadcast was this year. Some highlights:

• Jon Stewart, who managed to take shots at both sides politically (both McCain's age & the liability that is Bill Clinton got mentioned) as well as a very funny joke about Yom Kippur...
• a delightful performance of "Falling Slowly" (and all of the other nominated songs)
• having the good sense to allow the young lady who co-wrote "Falling Slowly" to come back on stage after she got cut off
• the opportunity to figure out that I've only seen 33 of 80 Best Picture winners - I've got some watchin' to do!

As for the actual awards, I (like my buddy, Stven Carlberg), find myself wanting to see the nominated films - for once, the show got me more rather than less interested.

The Collective Mind of the "Birdbath" Predicts the Oscars - 2008

Each year since 2000, I've hosted what I jokingly call "Mark's Oscar Birdbath"... it's just not right to call it an Oscar Pool when there's no money involved. I invite folks from throughout my life (past & present churches, high school friends, family, gamer buddies, etc.) to participate. (Don't be miffed if you weren't asked to join - what with the compiling of the Five & Dime reports and life in general, I don't want to get too big a crowd playing.)

So far, 31 folks are participating in this go-round (with 18 hours left until the deadline)... and here's what THEY think will be the winners this year. (This is based on their entries - when the voting is tight, I'm listing multiple entries.)

• BEST PICTURE: No Country For Old Men
• BEST DIRECTOR: Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
• BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
• BEST ACTRESS: Ellen Page, Juno
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardern, No Country For Old Men
• BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There (but this one is very close)
• ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Juno
• ADAPATED SCREENPLAY: No Country For Old Men
• CINEMATOGRAPHY: No Country For Old Men
• FILM EDITING: The Bourne Ultimatum
• ART DIRECTION: Sweeney Todd
• COSTUME DESIGN: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
• ACHIEVEMENT IN ORIGINAL MUSIC: Atonement/Ratatouille
• BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Falling Slowly", Once
• ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP: Pirates of the Carribean 3
• ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING: Transformers
• ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING: Transformers
• ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers
• BEST ANIMNATED FEATURE: Ratatouille
• BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters (Austria)
• BEST DOCUMENTARY: Sicko
• BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Sari's Mother
• BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: Le Mozart des Pickpockets
• BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: Peter & the Wolf

Last year, we went 19 for 24 - which is pretty impressive. Come back on Monday & see how the collective mind of "my friends" did this time around... and find out who won the Birdbath!

A couple of "I'd like to thank the Academy"-ish kind of things to close this post out:

• Thanks to Steve Stigler & his buddies from high school (especially Chris Newcomb, who's actually playing in the Birdbath this year!), who first introduced me to Oscar Pools and the musical stylings of Stephen Sondheim when we were students together at Baylor University
• Thanks to Matt Baldwin, whose website, Defective Yeti, is the one who makes it so darn easy for me to maintain the Birdbath

ER & the search for answers

I like Ed Stetzer's blog a lot. Especially today. (Follow the link already, people - and watch the video clip.)

Jump Cuts

1. Sorry that I haven't finished up all the Five & Dime stats... work has begun on the final 5 posts, but they probably won't start publishing until Monday.
2. The NFL got muscled by some politicians - and now it's OK for churches to have Super Bowl parties. Man, I still don't get why it took this long to get straightened out. (Here's a post from on it from last year.)
3. Speaking of churches, there's a church in Tampa that's doing a 30 day Sex Challenge. They're urging single folks to not engage in sexual activity for 30 days - and for married folks to "engage" for 30 days. (I'm guessing the 2nd one causes more interesting discussions... want to know more about what I think about sex? Check out this post... and this one... and this one.)
4. The Fresno Gamers are moving to Tuesday nights for the month of March to see if that will work better for more of our members. If you're in Fresno (or just drop by for a visit), come & join us!
5. Finally, speaking about jump cuts: I wish I could find CD versions of Prodigal's three albums - Prodigal, Electric Eye & Just Like Real Life (Jump Cut). Wait a minute! I should check iTunes!

Happy May 22nd to Me...

Watch the Trailer on Yahoo! Movies

Yeah, I'm being a shill for them... but who cares? Shut up & watch the trailer.

Five & Dime 2007: Joining The "In" Crowd

These are games that have appeared on the Five & Dime lists before... and have risen in overall playing percentages.

Game	percentage gain from 2006
Yspahan	+20.64%
Qwirkle	+11.03%
BattleLore	+9.62%
Taluva	+9.61%
Thebes/Jenseits von Theben	+9.51%
Pillars of the Earth	+8.08%
Tumblin' Dice	+7.93%
Factory Fun	+7.53%
R-Eco	+6.46%
Fairy Tale	+6.61%
On the Underground	+6.15%
Mr. Jack	+6.06%
Hive	+5.56%
Lost Cities	+5.58%
Nexus Ops	+4.57%

There are two main reasons that games appear on this list:

1. They were reprinted and/or had another game added to their franchise this year (Thebes, Fairy Tale).
2. They were "Essen" games... they were released late in 2006 and were only played 5+ times by a couple of folks in 2006 (Yspahan, BattleLore, Taluva, Pillars of the Earth, Factory Fun, R-Eco, On the Underground, Mr. Jack).

As always, the interesting games here are the ones that can not be explained by these reasons:

• Qwirkle, which is the first "adult" game design that just seems to connect so well with gamers & non-gamers.
• Nexus Ops, which got some extra gaming love from being remaindered - which gave a lot of folks time to appreciate what a nice design is hidden all that glow-in-the-dark plastic.
• And I don't have any way to explain the sudden surge in interest in Tumblin' Dice (my $5 copy found at an AmVet thrift store notwithstanding), Hive (I really don't understand that one - but that's my problem, not yours) and Lost Cities (which is enjoying a resurgence - was there a new printing this year?!)

Five & Dime 2007: Lo, How The Mighty Have Fallen

These are games that have appeared on the Five & Dime lists before... and have fallen in overall playing percentages.

Game	percentage loss from 2006
Thurn and Taxis	-20.61%
Ticket to Ride - Märklin	-18.25%
Caylus	-15.66%
10 Days/Europa Tour	-12.75%
Hey! That's My Fish/Pingvinas	-11.21%
That's Life	-10.49%
Hacienda	-10.23%
Liar's Dice/Bluff/Perudo	-9.15%
Take 6	-8.85%
Ticket to Ride: Europe	-8.51%
Loopin' Louie	-8.44%
Ingenious/Einfach Genial(Kosmos)	-8.33%
Web of Power/China	-7.76%
Cleopatra & the Society of Architects	-7.46%
Power Grid/Funkenschlag	-7.37%
Masons	-7.04%
Settlers of Catan	-7.01%

Note that some of these games are still highly rated on the overall and/or five/dime lists... with the substantially larger sampling group, high percentages that used to be common to the top games (60%+) have completely disappeared. So, Thurn & Taxis and Ingenious can all take pretty big hits in number of players... and still end up highly ranked.

Once again, this is the list I'm most accurate at predicting: I called the top three games to appear here. (Caylus, Thurn & Taxis and TtR: Marklin.)

Ingneious & Liar's Diceappearing here was primarily a function of the generally lower scores - while some of the other games (That's Life, the Ticket to Ride games) seem to have genuinely dropped in the number of people playing them. (

Predictions: Notre Dame will top this list next year... also appearing will be Battlelore, Yspahan & San Juan. (I'm not sure about Zooloretto...)

Five & Dime 2007: Lo, How The Mighty Have Fallen

These are games that have appeared on the Five & Dime lists before... and have fallen in overall playing percentages.

Game	percentage loss from 2006
Thurn and Taxis	-20.61%
Ticket to Ride - Märklin	-18.25%
Caylus	-15.66%
10 Days/Europa Tour	-12.75%
Hey! That's My Fish/Pingvinas	-11.21%
That's Life	-10.49%
Hacienda	-10.23%
Liar's Dice/Bluff/Perudo	-9.15%
Take 6	-8.85%
Ticket to Ride: Europe	-8.51%
Loopin' Louie	-8.44%
Ingenious/Einfach Genial(Kosmos)	-8.33%
Web of Power/China	-7.76%
Cleopatra & the Society of Architects	-7.46%
Power Grid/Funkenschlag	-7.37%
Masons	-7.04%
Settlers of Catan	-7.01%

Note that some of these games are still highly rated on the overall and/or five/dime lists... with the substantially larger sampling group, high percentages that used to be common to the top games (60%+) have completely disappeared. So, Thurn & Taxis and Ingenious can all take pretty big hits in number of players... and still end up highly ranked.

Once again, this is the list I'm most accurate at predicting: I called the top three games to appear here. (Caylus, Thurn & Taxis and TtR: Marklin.)

Ingneious & Liar's Diceappearing here was primarily a function of the generally lower scores - while some of the other games (That's Life, the Ticket to Ride games) seem to have genuinely dropped in the number of people playing them. (

Predictions: Notre Dame will top this list next year... also appearing will be Battlelore, Yspahan & San Juan. (I'm not sure about Zooloretto...)

Talk About Your "Misc. Game Accesories"

thanks to the folks at Tric Trac for the pictures from Nuremberg Toy Fair - check all 256 of them out yourself!

Five & Dime 2007: Fresh Faces

These are games that appeared on the Five & Dime lists for the first time... in some cases, they may be older games that just hadn't reached a particular play threshold.

Game	score	percentage
Notre Dame	620	26.52%
Race for the Galaxy	485	18.60%
Zooloretto	310	14.94%
Vikings	165	7.32%
Agricola	165	6.71%
Age of Empires III: The Age of Discovery	125	7.01%
Caylus Magna Carta	120	5.79%
Phoenicia	110	5.79%
Colosseum	95	5.18%
Imperial	85	4.27%
Escalation!	85	3.35%
Arkadia	80	4.57%
Combat Commander: Europe	75	3.35%
Die Siedler von Catan – Das Würfelspiel	60	3.05%
Uptown	60	2.74%

Tied at 2.74% (less than 60 "score"): 1960: The Making of the President, Filou/Felix: The Cat in the Sack, Last Night on Earth - The Zombie Game

A few short comments... kind of blown away by the wave of Agricola play (esp. since all of those copies had to be majorly "pasted up") - glad I pre-ordered a Z-Man copy. Notice as well that there are a number of not-so-lite games on this list: Imperial & Combat Commander both count (along with the aforementioned Agricola). Finally, catch the overwhelming lead of Notre Dame & Race for the Galaxy - and, to some extent, Zooloretto - wowsa.

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Four Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 2004 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the Five & Dime lists in 2004.

Blue Moon Goa Hansa Heroscape Ingenious/Einfach Genial Memoir '44 No Thanks/Geschenkt San Juan Santiago St. Petersburg Ticket To Ride (does not include Marklin or Europe) Tongiaki

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Five Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 2003 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the Five & Dime lists in 2003.

10 Days in the _____/Europa Tour Age of Steam Alhambra Amun-Re Attika Balloon Cup Coloretto Fearsome Floors Gulo Gulo Hey! That's My Fish/Pingvinas King's Breakfast Paris Paris Rumis

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Six Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 2002 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the Five & Dime lists in 2002.

Alles im Eimer/The Bucket King Bang! (includes expansions) Blokus Carcassonne: Hunters & Gatherers Lord of the Rings: The Confrontation Power Grid (includes Funkenschlag & expansions) Puerto Rico Street Soccer TransAmerica (includes TransEuropa) Trendy (includes Crazy Race)

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Seven Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 2001 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the Five & Dime lists in 2001.

Africa Catch Phrase Dvonn Flowerpower Hick Hack im Gackelwack/Pick Picknic Royal Turf/Winner's Circle San Marco Traumfabrik/Hollywood Blockbuster Werewolf Wyatt Earp

Evangelical Does NOT Equal "Right Wing Nut Job"

I'm rather tired of hearing the mainstream news organizations blather on about "evangelical" voters and which candidate they voted for... as if those of us who might call ourselves evangelical have nothing more interesting to do than sit around & dither about whether or not we should vote for a Mormon or a moderate. (Which, as of this morning, really isn't an issue anymore, is it?)

The biggest problem, of course, is that the word "evangelical" to describe a religious/political viewpoint is a bad use of a good word. Hanna Rosin, a Washington Post reporter & author of the book, God's Harvard, does a good job of explaining the problem in an online Q&A about her book.

Alexandria, Va.: Somebody told me the other day “I’m an evangelical.” What does that mean? How is it different from a fundamentalist?

Hanna Rosin: A very excellent question, as that term is much misunderstood. People used to define an evangelical as anyone who liked Billy Graham, but that’s not so helpful anymore. Fundamentalist is a historical term from the beginning of the century that’s come to be associated with very literal reading of the Bible and a restrictive lifestyle, and also has come to take on negative connotations. I rarely meet people who call themselves fundamentalists anymore.

Theologically speaking, an evangelical believes in the inerrancy of the Bible and has a living, intimate relationship with Jesus Christ. But that term also has taken on political implications, so it has come to mean someone who advocates the “family values” agenda. Right now that term is so overused that anyone who goes to a megachurch can call themselves an evangelical, and it doesn’t really tell you all that much about what the person believes or how they live. Complicated answer, but there it is.

Combining some ideas from Bebbington & Green, here's a paraphrased snapshot of the three basic tenets of what it means to be theologically evangelical:

• salvation comes through faith in Jesus Christ & not through good works
• the Bible is inerrant & is the primary source of religious authority
• all followers of Christ are commissioned by Jesus to share their faith ("evanglize" - where the word "evanglical" comes from)

Note there's no party affiliation in here - and there's no denominational affiliation, either. While believing these things may make it more likely for you to attend a particular brand of church or be loyal to a particular political party, it is not an implicit part of the belief system.

Evangelicals are not a monolothic sub-culture that can be manipulated by uttering a few religious buzz words or leaving near-subliminal signals in your television advertising. While we have some right-wing (or even right of right-wing) nut jobs in our fold, that's not a complete picture of who we are.

How many of you atheists out there are glad that Madyln Murray O'Hair has been the face of your movement for 40+ years? We evangelicals - for the most part - feel the same way about people lumping all of us in with Pat Robertson.

I'm not sure this is a coherent post - but I feel better for writing it. So, I guess that's all good, eh?

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Eight Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 2000 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the Five & Dime lists in 2000.

Battle Cry (AH) Carcassonne (includes expansions but not stand-alone "cousins") Cartagena (includes Cartagena 2) Citadels Lord of the Rings (includes expansions) Princes of Florence Taj Mahal Tichu Web of Power (includes China) Zertz

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Nine Year Pix)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 1999 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the first Five & Dime list in 1999.

Apples to Apples Crokinole Loopin' Louie Lost Cities Mamma Mia (includes Sole Mio) Ra Ricochet Robot(s) Schotten-Totten/Battleline Union Pacific Zirkus Flohcati

Five & Dime 2007: Wide Angle Lens (Ten Year Pix)

It's still hard for me to believe I've been doing this for ten years... but I still get a big kick out of seeing the love some of these games have acquired. (Intentional pun - my apologies.)

These graphs cover 2007 (top bar) through 1999 (bottom bar). The bar is the percentage of players reporting who played the game 5+ times in the given year. The games here first appeared on the first Five & Dime list in 1998, though many of them were released before that.

Acquire Bohnanza (includes expansions) Can't Stop Carabande (includes Pitchcar) El Grande Euphrat & Tigris For Sale Formula De (includes Formula De Mini) Guillotine Liar's Dice (includes Perudo) Medici Metro (includes Iron Horse) Mu & Mehr Samurai Schnappchen Jagd Settlers of Catan (includes expansions but not stand-alone "cousins") Settlers of Catan Card Game Showmanager (includes Atlantic Star) Take 6 Take It Easy Through the Desert